GCAP Blog

We know Europe is changing, from political realignment to humanitarian crises. Change is the new normal. And behind the headlines, the climate continues its relentless dynamic of new records and startling impacts in Europe.

The WEF Global Risks Report was published last week, and as ever contains plenty of things to keep you up worrying about at 3am. The report notes the increasing interconnectedness of risks, and the potential for societal polarization and inequality to produce political outcomes which reduce our ability to deal with global risks. Strikingly though, climate-related risks account for 4/5 of the highest impact risks, and 2/3 (arguably 3/3 if we include a climate-migration link) of the most likely risks.

We often style climate adaptation as navigating landscapes of resilience. Every now and then we see images that resonate with the emotions of navigating complexity. This arrived in a new year greeting. To me it hints at a shadowy world on the left, partly seen and filtered through various lens in the middle with a person on the right. I don't know if the artist had this in mind! And you may see it differently too.

In the aftermath of the U.S election there’s been a lot written about why the polls were off, and the role of forecasting sites such as 538 and The Upshot. In particular I’ve been struck by the conversation about the problems that these sites, which use models to forecast the likelihood of each candidate winning, have in communicating the uncertainty and probabilities around their forecasts, and similarities with discussions in the climate world.

A couple of things have crystalized for me over the last couple of months, driven primarily by work with several Multi-Lateral Development Banks (MDBs), and further developed this week with exposure to a very bright group of investment managers looking for ways they can identify opportunities for adaptation for SMEs in Nepal and Bangladesh.